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Predictable vs. Unpredictable

Posted on September 5, 2019 by Kevin Paul Tracy

Once, in a writers’ workshop, the presenter said that good fiction dwells upon one protagonist, looking at the world through her eyes as events unfold, events that fundamentally don’t change anything at all, and that the only arc, the only change throughout the book, was the protagonist’s view of events and the lessons she learns. That’s certainly one view of fiction, but I don’t think it disqualifies all the fiction that doesn’t follow that formula.

Part of writing any story, not just thrillers or mysteries, is to grip the reader and make them wonder what’s coming next. This is sometimes interpreted by the writer as a need to shock or dismay the reader with unpredictable actions, events, or outcomes. It becomes a compulsion to not write anything predictable ever and to seek ways to thwart readers’ expectations. It almost becomes a contest of sorts, an adversarial relationship between writer and reader.

The problem is that it’s very hard to surprise or shock well-read readers. Even if you throw in red-herring plot threads and downplay the role of the character who later turns out to be the killer, so much has been done in this vein that even revealing the least likely character as the villain is, in itself, predictable and unsurprising.

Then there are what I refer to as deep readers. These are readers who love to read, who get a thrill as much from the writer’s prose alone as from the story being told, readers with a collection of books they reread for the sheer joy of reading—and what could be less predictable than a book you’ve read before? I fancy myself one of these readers. I’ve been known to restart a book I only just finished reading that moment because I liked it (or sometimes just to understand it—William S. Burroughs, for example, always leaves me scratching my head).

I guess my point here is that whether you are writing mainstream fiction, which is generally less surprising or unpredictable, or mystery, you cannot go wrong with good, solid prose that engages readers and leaves them wanting to read more, even if they know—or can guess—what’s going to happen next.

Category: Blog, General Interest

2 thoughts on “Predictable vs. Unpredictable”

  1. M.W. Kelly says:
    September 9, 2019 at 10:02 am

    Hey Kevin,
    Great article. Have you ever finished a book, especially one with a twist, and gone back to read the first couple of chapters to see how the foreshadowing payed out? As an author, you might find this enjoyable in several different dimensions.

    1. Kevin P Tracy says:
      September 9, 2019 at 10:43 am

      Not specifically for that purpose, but the times I have gone right back I’ve certainly noticed foreshadowing, when present. My favorite kind of book is the kind the follows several seemingly unrelated plot threads and somehow finds a way to tie them all into each other at the end, in a way coming full circle as you go back to see all of the clues that would have led you to the relationship each thread has with the others had you been aware.

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