Who’s driving?

It’s hard when you begin the journey to sort the wheat from the chaff. Lots of people—good, well-meaning people—keep repeating what they were told. They avoid walking under ladders. They steer clear of black cats. They knock on wood.

Generally these efforts don’t cost much, perhaps give a feeling of security, and might provide some small incremental good. But they’re still superstitions. Beliefs that aren’t really grounded in fact or even reality. They’re just folklore. Ideas that get repeated so often they take on lives of their own.

I’m talking about the apparently widespread belief that reviews drive sales. More specifically, the notion that the number of Amazon reviews creates a condition that positions your title more advantageously on the storefront.

Here’s the thing: Sales drive reviews. The more sales you have, the more reviews you’ll get. It’ll probably be something like one in 100 readers will review a book. If they love it (or hate it), they’re more likely to review it. It’s an emotional response on the part of the reader.

Reviews do not drive sales. Don’t believe me? Test the hypothesis yourself. Find a backlist title for an author with a current release. If they have any following at all, that backlist title has many more reviews than the new release. Note the sales rank of each. If reviews drive sales, the book that’s selling the most should be the oldest one, not the newest. It should have the higher sales rank. It doesn’t.

The problem with this superstition is that it bleeds attention and effort away from activities that might actually help. If you’re soliciting reviews, you’re not writing the next book. You’re not paying attention to your audience. You’re fretting over the black cat and not counting the opportunity cost on a creative transaction with a razor-thin margin.

The two factors contributing most to a reader’s buying decision are: (1) knowing the author’s work, and (2) a recommendation from a trusted friend. Between them, they’re the diagnostic factors for some 70% of all book buying decisions [1]. The biggest obstacle for new writers is discovery. If a reader sees your book’s Amazon page, they’ve already discovered you. The heavy lifting is done. Your cover, your product description, and your sample need to close the sale.

Yes, there are people who look at reviews. Yes, there are still gullible people who believe that the Amazon review system can’t be gamed. Yes, there are—sadly—still authors who game it because they don’t believe they’ll get caught and that it matters enough to risk their pen name. Some people look at the one-stars to see if the reviewer complains about something they want to read. “Too much sex” in a one-star review can really bolster sales in certain categories.

My belief—and it’s only an opinion—is that people look at reviews to confirm an edge-case decision. It works like this: I’m a potential reader, and a friend recommends a book. I look it up. The cover might not be perfect. The description has a couple of typos. The book looks interesting, but a check of the reviews confirms this isn’t a book I want to read—or conversely, yeah, I’ll take a chance.

If it makes you feel better, then rock it. Spend your time and attention finding ways to get reviews. I’m not going to yuck anybody’s yum here. But writing is a business, and everything we do for our business carries a cost—cash, time, attention, focus. If you’re operating on a shoestring, focus on tying your shoes before you try to walk anywhere.

Even under a ladder.

[1] American Bookseller data that has gone behind a paywall. Sorry. I should have grabbed a screenshot because I keep referencing it.

Image Credit: Oregon Department of Transportation [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons